words : beware of headlines
This morning during my first email check of the day, I found a news alert from the NYTimes with a headline that read “Clinton wins Nevada”. On closer (internet-based) inspection, I see that Clinton got 51% of the vote, Obama got 45% of the vote and Edwards got 4%. So what exactly does this “win” mean for Clinton? In actuality it means a lot less than it might appear if you are just following the headlines.
The issue is all about delegates. There is a lot of info about delegates out on the internet so I won’t mire you down with the historical and picayune details, but here are two key points to remember:
1) States have delegates based on their population. So delegates from Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, even though they come early in the process, are just a drop in the bucket compared to the more populous states. Don’t get caught in the mindset that just because someone has “won” a few early states, that means they will win the nomination. There’s a relative deluge still to come.
2) State delegates are divided up based on the same percentages as the voting. It’s not like the electoral college “winner take all” system. Even though Clinton “won” Nevada, she will only get 51% of the delegates from that state, not all. Obama will get 45% and Edwards will get 4%. In a runaway primary process, where one candidate is the clear favorite above others, this would not be so important. But in a close primary process, where more than one candidate has strong showings in each primary or caucus, the percentages will be important.
For more details, take a look at this NYTimes site showing all the delegate numbers. As of today, only the New Hampshire delegates are certain, because in some cases delegates postpone their final decisions for a short time after the initial caucus/primary (each state makes its own rules). There are a couple different types of events that could cause the numbers to change:
1) A delegate has a change of heart and votes for a different candidate. The delegates have the power to “vote their conscience” even after the general primary voting has taken place. This is a pretty rare event, but in a close race even a few might make a difference. Also, if something dramatic happened (campaign fraud is uncovered, a candidate becomes seriously ill) it could be a factor. Which leads to…
2) Delegates for a candidate who later drops out can choose to vote for another candidate. So for example if John Edwards drops out of the race, his 4 delegates from New Hampshire could switch to any of the other democratic candidates. In some cases, agreements between the candidates are worked out (“if I can have your delegates, I’ll give you a cooshy job in the Executive Branch”).
The bottom line is this: Despite the media frenzy, not much has been decided yet, and there’s a long way to go. Don’t get caught in the hype, vote your conscience! Listen to this link (Leonard Lopate show on WNYC) for an interesting explanation about delegates.
